Arab Parties Gain As Israel Vote Count Continues

Israelis woke to a parliamentary map without an owner on Thursday as final vote tallies remained pending. Local media projected 53 seats for Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, 48 for opposition parties and 19 for parties led by Arab citizens. A coalition needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats to govern. Certification of the official count is required by November 4, and the speaker of parliament is scheduled to convene on November 10.

Netanyahu and Likud escalated claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the vote. The party asked the state election commission to investigate but supplied no specific evidence. The commission's request to the Shin Bet intelligence service referred to alleged interference by unspecified foreign entities against Israeli interests and did not name Arab-led parties. Qatar rejected any role in the matter: "We categorically deny accusations that Qatar interfered in Israeli elections or funded any activity aimed at influencing their outcome," it said, adding that it had been accused of buying Arab votes. The commission's interim director general wrote to a member of parliament on Thursday that "as far as we know, there is no basis for claims of systematic violations of electoral integrity."

Arab-led parties recorded their strongest showing to date. Turnout rose among Arab citizens after Likud campaigned on the premise that these parties pose a danger to Israel. Arab citizens make up 20% of the country's population. Mansour Abbas, who leads the Ra'am party, welcomed the interference probe and said his party has no connection to it; he also accused Netanyahu of running an incitement campaign. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, accused Netanyahu of "attempting to undermine election results through an ugly delegitimization campaign aimed at the will of the public, and at the Arab population in particular."

Isaac Herzog, who must assign the mandate to form a government, called this a "sensitive moment" and asked for a full investigation. He added that "we must not stain an entire community that sought to exercise its right to vote and participate actively in democracy." Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief whose Yashar party said it was briefed by the head of the Shin Bet, warned political actors against "exploiting the situation" to influence the November 10 convening date. Ahmad Tibi, second on the Joint List, told Army Radio that the opposition bloc contacted him about replacing the Knesset speaker and that his party will back the bloc's candidate.

Coalition arithmetic remains unresolved. Eisenkot has signaled conditional openness to working with Arab-led parties. Parties that campaigned to remove Netanyahu could also join him instead. Small demonstrations took place overnight in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem backing a coalition that includes Arab-led parties. No Arab party joined an Israeli coalition government before 2021, and that arrangement was brief. If no government forms after repeated attempts, Israel faces a new election early next year; Herzog said on Wednesday he wants to avoid that outcome.

Arab-led parties could influence the next parliament without entering a coalition, including by selecting the Knesset speaker, which would give them control of the legislative agenda before a government is formed. Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, said: "If God wills, we will have something for us in the government, something that brings us our rights."

The disputes sit alongside policy questions already before voters. Netanyahu's opponents have accused him of delaying a Gaza war deal, including a hostage release, for political benefit. The status of the fast-growing ultra-Orthodox population's exemption from mandatory military service is also in question, as is Israel's international standing after criticism of its treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and rising settler violence in the occupied West Bank. The Trump administration has discussed strikes on Iran after the November 3 U.S. midterm elections.

The election commission has asked the Shin Bet for conclusions within the week. The commission's interim director general wrote that, as far as it knows, there is no basis for claims of systematic violations of electoral integrity.