Polls project 12 to 15 Knesset seats for Palestinian blocs in deadlocked Israeli election

Polling data indicates that Palestinian citizens of Israel hold the balance of power in next week's national election. Projections estimate that the two main Palestinian political blocs will secure between 12 and 15 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. This margin is sufficient to break a tie between the two dominant Jewish Israeli camps, neither of which is currently forecast to reach the 61-seat threshold required to form a government.

The electoral math has shifted as Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition appears set to lose its majority. Simultaneously, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is projected to fall short of a governing majority. The 12 to 15 seats expected for the Palestinian blocs are split between two main entities: the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for more than two decades and currently heads Ta'al, stated that high turnout is a primary tool for defeating the current administration. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down," Tibi said. "And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal."

Political dynamics have been shaped by the recent history of coalition building. Most opposition parties have previously ruled out governing with Arab politicians, and Netanyahu's allies have used campaign slogans such as "It's the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi" to portray such alliances as toxic. However, precedents exist for cross-religious coalitions. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a government led by Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu also initiated coalition talks with Abbas in the past.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would hold a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the upcoming vote as a choice focused on mitigation, noting that many voters perceive a distinct difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. Iraqi observed that while there is no clarity regarding the post-election period, this uncertainty contributes to a widespread feeling of powerlessness among Palestinian citizens.

Fear of a far-right return is a central motivation for voting. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the biggest driver for his supporters. He cited the destruction in Gaza, militant violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as factors deepening concerns about another four years under far-right ministers. Abu Shehadeh stated that voters understand the danger if "these criminals come back to rule again."

Turnout has historically been depressed by distrust of the political system. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article concerning the October 7 Hamas-led attacks. The ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Conversely, a motion to disqualify National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir over racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld. Some citizens, such as journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system that treats their rights as favors.

In the town of Kfar Qasim, residents gathered over knafeh pastries and cardamom coffee to hear candidates make their pitches. The timing of the election coincides with a local historical marker. The vote takes place two days before the community marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew they did not know about. This historical context underscores the weight voters place on the upcoming decision.

The election will determine which side of the political spectrum secures the support necessary to govern. With the opposition expected to fall short of a majority, the final seat count for the Palestinian blocs will dictate the direction of the new government. Candidates from both the Ra'am party and the Joint List are urging their communities to vote, anticipating that the arithmetic of the results will force the major Jewish Israeli parties to negotiate with the blocs they previously resisted.