Three seats and 61 votes: The math behind Israel's next government

Voters in Israel cast ballots in a general election that could leave no single faction with a clear majority to govern. The final outcome may rest on a small group of representatives rather than a broad coalition of parties. Political figures are currently reviewing how to assemble the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority.

Assessments within the political establishment indicate that Agudat Yisrael, a three-member haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could support a government led by opposition figures. This faction is part of United Torah Judaism. Such support might be exchanged for specific budgetary agreements. However, even this arrangement might not eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties to reach the required threshold.

Reports from Maariv in August noted that Agudat Yisrael explored cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks occurred amid internal friction between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah. The disagreement centered on the haredi military draft and relations with Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando sent a letter expressing reservations about the commitment to the Netanyahu-led bloc. This correspondence added uncertainty to the ties between the haredi parties and Likud.

Goldknopf faces a challenge from his voter base. These voters largely identify with the Right. Political assessments suggest that any sign of backing a change bloc government could push supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic complicates the potential deal between Agudat Yisrael and opposition leaders.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett is another variable in the equation. If neither major bloc secures enough seats to govern alone, Bennett may influence the final government structure. One scenario involves him joining a Netanyahu-led government if neither side reaches 61 seats. This is viewed as a remote possibility. Bennett's background on the Right makes him a unique candidate for such a move, though his current party makeup complicates the shift.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge figure, given his history of serving as defense minister under Netanyahu. However, current assessments hold that personal and political disagreements keep Liberman far from such a move. The central issue in upcoming negotiations will be which politicians are willing to shift their political bases. These remain scenarios and assessments rather than finalized agreements between the parties.