Netanyahu leads but faces uncertain path to majority as Israeli vote counts conclude

Israelis faced a period of intense uncertainty Wednesday after casting ballots in what marked the highest voter turnout in the country since 1999. No clear winner emerged from the count, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents in a precarious position as weeks of coalition negotiations loom ahead.

According to data from the Central Elections Committee, Netanyahu’s Likud party holds 20.8% of the vote with 77% of ballots counted. That figure falls short of the 23.4% share the party secured in the 2022 election. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, leads the Yashar party with 16.4% of the count. The committee’s current figures do yet to translate these percentages into specific seats within the 120-seat Knesset.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly 17 years, issued defiant remarks following the vote. He rejected the notion of forming a government with Arab-led parties, a move he called treasonous. “We must establish a strong, right-wing, nationalist government,” he stated, adding that Israel must not rely on anti-Zionist Arab parties.

Eisenkot, a former military chief, has kept the door open to such a partnership under specific conditions. He requires Arab parties to recognize Israel as a Jewish state and to label Hamas an extremist group. However, some of Eisenkot’s likely allies have previously ruled out such an alliance, creating a potential hurdle for his campaign to unseat the current administration.

Arab-led parties achieved a historic performance in the election, a result that has reignited debates within Israel regarding national identity. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, declared that the party is no longer on the sidelines. His party previously joined a governing coalition briefly in 2021. This success contrasts with the position of Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, who saw his support erode. Many voters viewed him as representing the most contentious elements of the current government.

The high turnout, nearing 78% of eligible voters, reflected widespread unease over the governing alliance and anger regarding military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population. Despite the grief caused by the October 2023 Hamas attack, opposition parties were unable to convert that sentiment into a decisive victory. President Isaac Herzog is not obligated to task the leader of the largest party with forming a government, though Likud remains the best positioned to do so.

If no leader can assemble a majority coalition, Israel may face new elections early next year. The country has held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 due to similar political deadlocks. Voters expressed divided opinions on the prospect of an Arab-led coalition. Hanna Doukhan, a voter in Tel Aviv, stated she sees no possibility of forming a government without Arab participation, while Michal Shiloh in Jerusalem opposed the idea, reflecting a rightward shift among some younger citizens.