Lula crowds Rio beach as Bolsonaro rallies in Minas Gerais ahead of runoff

Tens of thousands of supporters filled Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, marking the final day before a decisive presidential runoff. The crowd, dressed predominantly in red, moved across the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in what organizers described as a carnival-like procession. This final push comes as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attempts to close a narrow gap against far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.

The race is statistically difficult for Lula. He lost the first round of voting on 4 October, taking 45% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 47%. Since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has won the subsequent runoff. With 159 million Brazilians eligible to vote on Sunday, a victory for Lula would break a historical pattern. Most analysts currently view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite, though recent polling indicates the contest is tighter than expected.

On the beach, activists unfurled a large yellow and green banner with the message: "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a homemade sign reading "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." Silva said the recent wave of street protests, many led by students, indicated that "the people have woken up." He predicted Lula would win more than 60% of the vote, a figure that exceeds current polling projections.

Lula’s recent rise in the polls coincides with several scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The group was reportedly seeking a deal with his father's government. These reports have allowed Lula to regain some initiative in the final days of the campaign.

For many voters, the stakes extend beyond standard policy differences. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the candidate, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his loss in 2022. Some democratic voters fear he could be released or return to government if his son wins. Brazilian press reports suggest that other jailed or exiled plotters could receive senior military and police posts. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, said her opposition was directed at "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right in general. She noted that she lost four relatives due to the pandemic and her belief in the neglect during that period.

Mobilization efforts have been organized through digital channels. Many in the Rio crowd belonged to "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members created after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, described the election as not a normal race. Cammy Marinho, a 49-year-old DJ and activist, said she spent two weeks trying to persuade Bolsonaro voters and abstainers to switch sides. Heitor Lopes da Silva, 14, traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair to carry a placard of support.

Bolsonaro's campaign also mobilized supporters, particularly in Minas Gerais, a key swing state. Thousands gathered in Belo Horizonte, the state capital, wearing yellow football jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais has the country's second-largest electorate. No candidate has won the presidency without carrying this state. Bolsonaro led by just under 5% in the first round here.

In Belo Horizonte, supporters focused on security messaging. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, a 59-year-old shooting club owner, argued that Jair Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to defend themselves and that his son would continue that policy. Security experts note that Jair Bolsonaro’s earlier loosening of gun laws diverted many firearms to criminal gangs, while Lula has since tightened the rules. Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect, carried a sign reading "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts about Bolsonaro's ability to curb crime given his documented ties to Rio's paramilitary militias.