Bolsonaro holds 1.3 point lead as Brazil campaign ends

Flavio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 1.3 percentage points in the final days before Brazil's presidential runoff. A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday placed the senator at 46.3 percent and the incumbent at 45 percent. The margin of error stands at 2.2 percentage points, a range that places the contest within statistical parity.

The campaign concluded on Saturday after a week of intense polling. In the first round, Bolsonaro captured 47 percent of the vote against Lula's 45 percent. A previous iteration of the CNT/MDA survey conducted one week earlier showed Bolsonaro ahead by a wider margin of 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. The current figures indicate a slight narrowing of that gap.

The two candidates held final rallies on the last day of campaigning. Lula, 80, addressed hundreds of supporters at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat, the left-wing leader waved a Brazilian flag from a campaign truck. He contrasted his own patriotism with his rival's relationship with US President Donald Trump. "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," Lula said.

Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, rallied supporters in the state of Minas Gerais. Hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts joined the gathering. Ebert Dorigo, a motorcyclist and supporter, told the news agency AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had fostered dependence on state welfare. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said. He argued that the country needs a new direction to prioritize hard work over government aid.

The runoff determines whether Brazil retains its current left-wing government or shifts further to the right, a trend visible across the region. Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and reduce government spending. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The candidates participated in a final debate on Friday. While the tone was calmer than previous exchanges, they continued to trade accusations regarding Brazil's economic difficulties and their respective records. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil," she told AFP.

Voters will cast their ballots on Sunday. The outcome will decide the next four years of Brazilian governance and the country's position in the regional political alignment.