Israel's religious parties hold the power to shape the next government

President Isaac Herzog will begin coalition consultations this Wednesday, but the outcome hinges on the Haredi parties.

Avigdor Liberman, chairman of Yisrael Beytenu, announced on Monday that he will recommend Gadi Eisenkot for prime minister. Liberman ruled out a minority government reliant on Arab party support and stated he would not serve under Benjamin Netanyahu. His stance narrows Eisenkot's options, leaving the central question of whether Shas and United Torah Judaism will join his government.

The Haredi parties are currently avoiding a firm commitment. Their leaders have stated in briefings that no final decision has been made and that rabbinical authorities will determine the path forward. Rabbis Dov Landau and Moshe Hillel Hirsch are expected to return from abroad around the time consultations begin at the President's Residence. Assessments suggest United Torah Judaism may choose not to recommend either candidate, preserving room for maneuver in later negotiations.

Political circles believe Eisenkot will be the first candidate tasked with forming a government. To secure support, he may offer generous terms on the military enlistment of yeshiva students, along with specific budget allocations. If the Haredi parties agree, Yisrael Beytenu could also join the cabinet. However, Liberman has served as defense, finance, and foreign minister in the past. Observers believe he may demand a rotation agreement for the premiership with Eisenkot, a move that could spark internal disputes.

Naftali Bennett, whose party won 12 Knesset seats, may oppose an arrangement where Liberman, with seven seats, serves as prime minister in a rotation while Bennett takes a ministerial role. This could lead to demands for a three-way rotation involving Eisenkot, Liberman, and Bennett. Such an arrangement would require complex negotiations over term lengths and power division.

Haredi sources describe their current position as an exceptional opportunity, as both political blocs need them. One source noted that it is beneficial for everyone to remain in suspense, with each side assuming an agreement has been reached with the other. However, a more sober assessment exists within the Haredi establishment. A well-informed source argued that the chances of the rabbis instructing them to join a Left-leaning government led by Eisenkot are low. This view applies to United Torah Judaism, even as officials explore dialogue with the anti-Netanyahu bloc. For Shas, the situation is more sensitive, as chairman Arye Deri has previously opposed a return to the scenario of Haredi participation in Yitzhak Rabin's government during the Oslo Accords period.

If the Haredi parties decline to join an Eisenkot-led government, the option of a government dependent on Arab party support returns to the debate. Liberman has already stated he will not support such a minority arrangement. Without Yisrael Beytenu or the Haredi parties, Eisenkot would struggle to assemble a stable majority. If he fails, the mandate could pass to Netanyahu. Some in his circle believe another election might be favorable, assuming high Arab voter turnout does not repeat. However, if the process reaches the 21-day period for Knesset nominations, a majority of 61 MKs could nominate a different candidate. Sources within Likud believe Netanyahu would agree to a unity government with Eisenkot if necessary, though Eisenkot would have to decide if he is prepared to serve alongside him.

As consultations approach, the Haredi parties maintain a strong bargaining position. They can refrain from recommending a candidate, examine proposals from both sides, and keep the coalition question open. The next step is to see if they use this leverage in negotiations or accept the political cost of joining a government led by Eisenkot.